Forecast Accuracy
We compare our Walk-On→Peak forecast to an observed score derived from daily median posted standby waits for Disneyland, Disney California Adventure, Knott’s, and Universal Studios Hollywood.
This page does not invent accuracy percentages. Metrics below are computed from the raw table — when history is thin, we say so. We are not claiming Disney attendance.
Summary Metrics
Computed from the same predicted vs observed rows below. Bias = mean (forecast − observed); positive means the model was too busy. Sample is still modest — we show real numbers, not marketing accuracy claims.
Date range: 2026-08-27 → 2026-09-24 · rows: 114
Overall
- Exact-tier: 37.7%
- Within one tier: 85.1%
- MAE: 0.78
- Bias: +0.24 (positive = model too busy)
- Sample: n=114 · 2026-08-27 → 2026-09-24
Disneyland
- Exact-tier: 24.1%
- Within one tier: 75.9%
- MAE: 1
- Bias: +0.38 (positive = model too busy)
- Sample: n=29 · 2026-08-27 → 2026-09-24
California Adventure
- Exact-tier: 41.4%
- Within one tier: 82.8%
- MAE: 0.79
- Bias: +0.31 (positive = model too busy)
- Sample: n=29 · 2026-08-27 → 2026-09-24
Knott’s
- Exact-tier: 55.6%
- Within one tier: 92.6%
- MAE: 0.52
- Bias: +0.37 (positive = model too busy)
- Sample: n=27 · 2026-08-27 → 2026-09-24
Universal Hollywood
- Exact-tier: 31%
- Within one tier: 89.7%
- MAE: 0.79
- Bias: -0.1 (negative = model under-predicts crowds)
- Sample: n=29 · 2026-08-27 → 2026-09-24
Weekday Calibration Status
- disneyland — Sun…Sat relative multipliers: 1, 1, 1.12, 1.11, 1.12, 1, 1.08 (updated 2026-09-25)
- california-adventure — Sun…Sat relative multipliers: 1, 1.12, 0.97, 1.12, 1, 1.08, 1.08 (updated 2026-09-25)
- knotts — Sun…Sat relative multipliers: 1.08, 0.93, 0.85, 1, 1, 1.08, 1.08 (updated 2026-09-25)
- universal-hollywood — Sun…Sat relative multipliers: 1.08, 1.12, 0.88, 1, 1.07, 1, 1.08 (updated 2026-09-25)
Recent Predicted vs Observed
Powered by ThemeParks.wiki — observed medians from daily standby history. Not official attendance.
| Date | Park | Forecast tier / score | Observed score | Observed median wait | Error (forecast − observed) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 | Universal Studios Hollywood | Walk-On (1) | 2 | 23 min | -1 |
| 2026-09-24 | Knott's Berry Farm | Walk-On (1) | 1 | 0 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-24 | Disney California Adventure | Walk-On (1) | 1 | 10 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-24 | Disneyland Park | Walk-On (1) | 2 | 20 min | -1 |
| 2026-09-23 | Universal Studios Hollywood | Walk-On (1) | 3 | 28 min | -2 |
| 2026-09-23 | Disney California Adventure | Walk-On (1) | 3 | 30 min | -2 |
| 2026-09-23 | Disneyland Park | Walk-On (1) | 2 | 15 min | -1 |
| 2026-09-22 | Universal Studios Hollywood | Walk-On (1) | 2 | 15 min | -1 |
| 2026-09-22 | Disney California Adventure | Walk-On (1) | 1 | 10 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-22 | Disneyland Park | Walk-On (1) | 2 | 20 min | -1 |
| 2026-09-21 | Universal Studios Hollywood | Walk-On (1) | 3 | 30 min | -2 |
| 2026-09-21 | Knott's Berry Farm | Walk-On (1) | 1 | 0 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-21 | Disney California Adventure | Walk-On (1) | 3 | 30 min | -2 |
| 2026-09-21 | Disneyland Park | Walk-On (1) | 3 | 30 min | -2 |
| 2026-09-20 | Universal Studios Hollywood | Heavy (3) | 3 | 30 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-20 | Knott's Berry Farm | Heavy (3) | 1 | 5 min | 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | Disney California Adventure | Moderate (2) | 2 | 13 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-20 | Disneyland Park | Moderate (2) | 1 | 10 min | 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | Universal Studios Hollywood | Heavy (3) | 3 | 28 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-19 | Knott's Berry Farm | Heavy (3) | 2 | 15 min | 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | Disney California Adventure | Heavy (3) | 2 | 20 min | 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | Disneyland Park | Heavy (3) | 2 | 15 min | 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | Universal Studios Hollywood | Moderate (2) | 3 | 30 min | -1 |
| 2026-09-18 | Knott's Berry Farm | Moderate (2) | 2 | 15 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-18 | Disney California Adventure | Moderate (2) | 2 | 15 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-18 | Disneyland Park | Moderate (2) | 1 | 10 min | 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | Universal Studios Hollywood | Walk-On (1) | 2 | 18 min | -1 |
| 2026-09-17 | Knott's Berry Farm | Walk-On (1) | 1 | 5 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-17 | Disney California Adventure | Walk-On (1) | 1 | 10 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-17 | Disneyland Park | Walk-On (1) | 2 | 15 min | -1 |
| 2026-09-16 | Universal Studios Hollywood | Walk-On (1) | 2 | 15 min | -1 |
| 2026-09-16 | Knott's Berry Farm | Walk-On (1) | 1 | 0 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-16 | Disney California Adventure | Walk-On (1) | 2 | 25 min | -1 |
| 2026-09-16 | Disneyland Park | Walk-On (1) | 2 | 15 min | -1 |
| 2026-09-15 | Universal Studios Hollywood | Walk-On (1) | 1 | 10 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-15 | Knott's Berry Farm | Walk-On (1) | 1 | 5 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-15 | Disney California Adventure | Walk-On (1) | 1 | 8 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-15 | Disneyland Park | Walk-On (1) | 2 | 15 min | -1 |
| 2026-09-14 | Universal Studios Hollywood | Walk-On (1) | 2 | 15 min | -1 |
| 2026-09-14 | Knott's Berry Farm | Walk-On (1) | 1 | 3 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-14 | Disney California Adventure | Walk-On (1) | 2 | 15 min | -1 |
| 2026-09-14 | Disneyland Park | Walk-On (1) | 1 | 10 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-13 | Universal Studios Hollywood | Heavy (3) | 2 | 20 min | 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | Knott's Berry Farm | Heavy (3) | 3 | 30 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-13 | Disney California Adventure | Moderate (2) | 1 | 10 min | 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | Disneyland Park | Moderate (2) | 1 | 10 min | 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | Universal Studios Hollywood | Heavy (3) | 2 | 25 min | 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | Knott's Berry Farm | Heavy (3) | 3 | 30 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-12 | Disney California Adventure | Heavy (3) | 1 | 10 min | 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | Disneyland Park | Heavy (3) | 1 | 10 min | 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | Universal Studios Hollywood | Moderate (2) | 2 | 15 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-11 | Knott's Berry Farm | Moderate (2) | 1 | 8 min | 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | Disney California Adventure | Moderate (2) | 1 | 5 min | 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | Disneyland Park | Moderate (2) | 1 | 10 min | 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | Universal Studios Hollywood | Walk-On (1) | 2 | 20 min | -1 |
| 2026-09-10 | Knott's Berry Farm | Walk-On (1) | 2 | 15 min | -1 |
| 2026-09-10 | Disney California Adventure | Walk-On (1) | 1 | 8 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-10 | Disneyland Park | Walk-On (1) | 1 | 5 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-09 | Universal Studios Hollywood | Moderate (2) | 1 | 5 min | 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | Knott's Berry Farm | Moderate (2) | 1 | 5 min | 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | Disney California Adventure | Heavy (3) | 1 | 10 min | 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | Disneyland Park | Heavy (3) | 1 | 10 min | 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | Universal Studios Hollywood | Moderate (2) | 1 | 10 min | 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | Knott's Berry Farm | Moderate (2) | 1 | 0 min | 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | Disney California Adventure | Moderate (2) | 1 | 10 min | 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | Disneyland Park | Heavy (3) | 2 | 15 min | 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | Universal Studios Hollywood | Heavy (3) | 3 | 35 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-07 | Knott's Berry Farm | Heavy (3) | 4 | 45 min | -1 |
| 2026-09-07 | Disney California Adventure | Heavy (3) | 2 | 20 min | 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | Disneyland Park | Heavy (3) | 1 | 10 min | 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | Universal Studios Hollywood | Peak (4) | 3 | 33 min | 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | Knott's Berry Farm | Peak (4) | 2 | 20 min | 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | Disney California Adventure | Peak (4) | 1 | 10 min | 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | Disneyland Park | Peak (4) | 2 | 20 min | 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | Universal Studios Hollywood | Peak (4) | 2 | 23 min | 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | Knott's Berry Farm | Peak (4) | 3 | 30 min | 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | Disney California Adventure | Peak (4) | 3 | 30 min | 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | Disneyland Park | Peak (4) | 2 | 15 min | 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | Universal Studios Hollywood | Moderate (2) | 2 | 15 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-04 | Knott's Berry Farm | Moderate (2) | 2 | 15 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-04 | Disney California Adventure | Moderate (2) | 2 | 15 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-04 | Disneyland Park | Moderate (2) | 2 | 15 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-03 | Universal Studios Hollywood | Walk-On (1) | 1 | 10 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-03 | Knott's Berry Farm | Walk-On (1) | 1 | 5 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-03 | Disney California Adventure | Walk-On (1) | 1 | 10 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-03 | Disneyland Park | Walk-On (1) | 2 | 15 min | -1 |
| 2026-09-02 | Universal Studios Hollywood | Walk-On (1) | 2 | 15 min | -1 |
| 2026-09-02 | Knott's Berry Farm | Walk-On (1) | 1 | 5 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-02 | Disney California Adventure | Walk-On (1) | 2 | 20 min | -1 |
| 2026-09-02 | Disneyland Park | Walk-On (1) | 1 | 10 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-01 | Universal Studios Hollywood | Walk-On (1) | 1 | 5 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-01 | Knott's Berry Farm | Walk-On (1) | 1 | 0 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-01 | Disney California Adventure | Walk-On (1) | 1 | 5 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-01 | Disneyland Park | Walk-On (1) | 1 | 8 min | 0 |
| 2026-08-31 | Universal Studios Hollywood | Walk-On (1) | 1 | 10 min | 0 |
| 2026-08-31 | Knott's Berry Farm | Walk-On (1) | 1 | 5 min | 0 |
| 2026-08-31 | Disney California Adventure | Walk-On (1) | 1 | 10 min | 0 |
| 2026-08-31 | Disneyland Park | Walk-On (1) | 1 | 5 min | 0 |
| 2026-08-30 | Universal Studios Hollywood | Heavy (3) | 2 | 13 min | 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | Knott's Berry Farm | Heavy (3) | 2 | 15 min | 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | Disney California Adventure | Moderate (2) | 1 | 8 min | 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | Disneyland Park | Moderate (2) | 1 | 5 min | 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | Universal Studios Hollywood | Heavy (3) | 2 | 23 min | 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | Knott's Berry Farm | Heavy (3) | 2 | 15 min | 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | Disney California Adventure | Heavy (3) | 2 | 15 min | 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | Disneyland Park | Heavy (3) | 1 | 10 min | 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | Universal Studios Hollywood | Moderate (2) | 1 | 10 min | 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | Knott's Berry Farm | Moderate (2) | 1 | 5 min | 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | Disney California Adventure | Moderate (2) | 1 | 10 min | 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | Disneyland Park | Moderate (2) | 1 | 10 min | 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | Universal Studios Hollywood | Walk-On (1) | 2 | 15 min | -1 |
| 2026-08-27 | Knott's Berry Farm | Walk-On (1) | 1 | 5 min | 0 |
| 2026-08-27 | Disney California Adventure | Walk-On (1) | 1 | 10 min | 0 |
| 2026-08-27 | Disneyland Park | Walk-On (1) | 1 | 5 min | 0 |
Observed score is a coarse map from median posted standby (≤12 Walk-On … >40 Peak). It is a diagnostic, not a claim of gate attendance.