Forecast accuracy
We compare our Soft→Peak forecast to an observed score derived from daily median posted standby waits for Disneyland, Disney California Adventure, Knott’s, and Universal Studios Hollywood.
This page does not invent accuracy percentages. When history is thin, we say so. We are not claiming Disney attendance.
Weekday calibration status
- disneyland — Sun…Sat bases: 1.16, 1.16, 1.43, 1.32, 1.43, 1.16, 1.32 (updated 2026-09-25)
- california-adventure — Sun…Sat bases: 1.16, 1.59, 1.1, 1.86, 1.16, 1.32, 1.59 (updated 2026-09-25)
- knotts — Sun…Sat bases: 1.59, 1.05, 1.05, 1.05, 1.05, 1.27, 1.86 (updated 2026-09-25)
- universal-hollywood — Sun…Sat bases: 1.97, 1.86, 1.16, 1.43, 1.59, 1.43, 1.91 (updated 2026-09-25)
Recent predicted vs observed
Powered by ThemeParks.wiki — observed medians from daily standby history. Not official attendance.
| Date | Park | Forecast tier / score | Observed score | Observed median wait | Error (forecast − observed) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 | Universal Studios Hollywood | Soft (1) | 2 | 23 min | -1 |
| 2026-09-24 | Knott's Berry Farm | Soft (1) | 1 | 0 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-24 | Disney California Adventure | Soft (1) | 1 | 10 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-24 | Disneyland Park | Soft (1) | 2 | 20 min | -1 |
| 2026-09-23 | Universal Studios Hollywood | Soft (1) | 3 | 28 min | -2 |
| 2026-09-23 | Disney California Adventure | Moderate (2) | 3 | 30 min | -1 |
| 2026-09-23 | Disneyland Park | Soft (1) | 2 | 15 min | -1 |
| 2026-09-22 | Universal Studios Hollywood | Soft (1) | 2 | 15 min | -1 |
| 2026-09-22 | Disney California Adventure | Soft (1) | 1 | 10 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-22 | Disneyland Park | Soft (1) | 2 | 20 min | -1 |
| 2026-09-21 | Universal Studios Hollywood | Moderate (2) | 3 | 30 min | -1 |
| 2026-09-21 | Knott's Berry Farm | Soft (1) | 1 | 0 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-21 | Disney California Adventure | Soft (1) | 3 | 30 min | -2 |
| 2026-09-21 | Disneyland Park | Soft (1) | 3 | 30 min | -2 |
| 2026-09-20 | Universal Studios Hollywood | Busy (3) | 3 | 30 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-20 | Knott's Berry Farm | Moderate (2) | 1 | 5 min | 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | Disney California Adventure | Soft (1) | 2 | 13 min | -1 |
| 2026-09-20 | Disneyland Park | Soft (1) | 1 | 10 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-19 | Universal Studios Hollywood | Moderate (2) | 3 | 28 min | -1 |
| 2026-09-19 | Knott's Berry Farm | Moderate (2) | 2 | 15 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-19 | Disney California Adventure | Moderate (2) | 2 | 20 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-19 | Disneyland Park | Moderate (2) | 2 | 15 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-18 | Universal Studios Hollywood | Moderate (2) | 3 | 30 min | -1 |
| 2026-09-18 | Knott's Berry Farm | Moderate (2) | 2 | 15 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-18 | Disney California Adventure | Moderate (2) | 2 | 15 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-18 | Disneyland Park | Soft (1) | 1 | 10 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-17 | Universal Studios Hollywood | Soft (1) | 2 | 18 min | -1 |
| 2026-09-17 | Knott's Berry Farm | Soft (1) | 1 | 5 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-17 | Disney California Adventure | Soft (1) | 1 | 10 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-17 | Disneyland Park | Soft (1) | 2 | 15 min | -1 |
| 2026-09-16 | Universal Studios Hollywood | Soft (1) | 2 | 15 min | -1 |
| 2026-09-16 | Knott's Berry Farm | Soft (1) | 1 | 0 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-16 | Disney California Adventure | Moderate (2) | 2 | 25 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-16 | Disneyland Park | Soft (1) | 2 | 15 min | -1 |
| 2026-09-15 | Universal Studios Hollywood | Soft (1) | 1 | 10 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-15 | Knott's Berry Farm | Soft (1) | 1 | 5 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-15 | Disney California Adventure | Soft (1) | 1 | 8 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-15 | Disneyland Park | Soft (1) | 2 | 15 min | -1 |
| 2026-09-14 | Universal Studios Hollywood | Moderate (2) | 2 | 15 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-14 | Knott's Berry Farm | Soft (1) | 1 | 3 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-14 | Disney California Adventure | Soft (1) | 2 | 15 min | -1 |
| 2026-09-14 | Disneyland Park | Soft (1) | 1 | 10 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-13 | Universal Studios Hollywood | Busy (3) | 2 | 20 min | 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | Knott's Berry Farm | Moderate (2) | 3 | 30 min | -1 |
| 2026-09-13 | Disney California Adventure | Soft (1) | 1 | 10 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-13 | Disneyland Park | Soft (1) | 1 | 10 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-12 | Universal Studios Hollywood | Moderate (2) | 2 | 25 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-12 | Knott's Berry Farm | Moderate (2) | 3 | 30 min | -1 |
| 2026-09-12 | Disney California Adventure | Moderate (2) | 1 | 10 min | 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | Disneyland Park | Moderate (2) | 1 | 10 min | 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | Universal Studios Hollywood | Moderate (2) | 2 | 15 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-11 | Knott's Berry Farm | Moderate (2) | 1 | 8 min | 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | Disney California Adventure | Moderate (2) | 1 | 5 min | 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | Disneyland Park | Soft (1) | 1 | 10 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-10 | Universal Studios Hollywood | Soft (1) | 2 | 20 min | -1 |
| 2026-09-10 | Knott's Berry Farm | Soft (1) | 2 | 15 min | -1 |
| 2026-09-10 | Disney California Adventure | Soft (1) | 1 | 8 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-10 | Disneyland Park | Soft (1) | 1 | 5 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-09 | Universal Studios Hollywood | Busy (3) | 1 | 5 min | 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | Knott's Berry Farm | Moderate (2) | 1 | 5 min | 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | Disney California Adventure | Busy (3) | 1 | 10 min | 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | Disneyland Park | Busy (3) | 1 | 10 min | 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | Universal Studios Hollywood | Moderate (2) | 1 | 10 min | 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | Knott's Berry Farm | Moderate (2) | 1 | 0 min | 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | Disney California Adventure | Moderate (2) | 1 | 10 min | 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | Disneyland Park | Busy (3) | 2 | 15 min | 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | Universal Studios Hollywood | Peak (4) | 3 | 35 min | 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | Knott's Berry Farm | Busy (3) | 4 | 45 min | -1 |
| 2026-09-07 | Disney California Adventure | Busy (3) | 2 | 20 min | 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | Disneyland Park | Busy (3) | 1 | 10 min | 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | Universal Studios Hollywood | Peak (4) | 3 | 33 min | 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | Knott's Berry Farm | Busy (3) | 2 | 20 min | 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | Disney California Adventure | Busy (3) | 1 | 10 min | 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | Disneyland Park | Busy (3) | 2 | 20 min | 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | Universal Studios Hollywood | Peak (4) | 2 | 23 min | 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | Knott's Berry Farm | Peak (4) | 3 | 30 min | 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | Disney California Adventure | Busy (3) | 3 | 30 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-05 | Disneyland Park | Busy (3) | 2 | 15 min | 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | Universal Studios Hollywood | Moderate (2) | 2 | 15 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-04 | Knott's Berry Farm | Moderate (2) | 2 | 15 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-04 | Disney California Adventure | Moderate (2) | 2 | 15 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-04 | Disneyland Park | Soft (1) | 2 | 15 min | -1 |
| 2026-09-03 | Universal Studios Hollywood | Moderate (2) | 1 | 10 min | 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | Knott's Berry Farm | Soft (1) | 1 | 5 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-03 | Disney California Adventure | Soft (1) | 1 | 10 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-03 | Disneyland Park | Moderate (2) | 2 | 15 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-02 | Universal Studios Hollywood | Soft (1) | 2 | 15 min | -1 |
| 2026-09-02 | Knott's Berry Farm | Soft (1) | 1 | 5 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-02 | Disney California Adventure | Moderate (2) | 2 | 20 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-02 | Disneyland Park | Soft (1) | 1 | 10 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-01 | Universal Studios Hollywood | Soft (1) | 1 | 5 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-01 | Knott's Berry Farm | Soft (1) | 1 | 0 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-01 | Disney California Adventure | Soft (1) | 1 | 5 min | 0 |
| 2026-09-01 | Disneyland Park | Moderate (2) | 1 | 8 min | 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | Universal Studios Hollywood | Moderate (2) | 1 | 10 min | 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | Knott's Berry Farm | Soft (1) | 1 | 5 min | 0 |
| 2026-08-31 | Disney California Adventure | Moderate (2) | 1 | 10 min | 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | Disneyland Park | Soft (1) | 1 | 5 min | 0 |
| 2026-08-30 | Universal Studios Hollywood | Busy (3) | 2 | 13 min | 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | Knott's Berry Farm | Moderate (2) | 2 | 15 min | 0 |
| 2026-08-30 | Disney California Adventure | Soft (1) | 1 | 8 min | 0 |
| 2026-08-30 | Disneyland Park | Soft (1) | 1 | 5 min | 0 |
| 2026-08-29 | Universal Studios Hollywood | Moderate (2) | 2 | 23 min | 0 |
| 2026-08-29 | Knott's Berry Farm | Moderate (2) | 2 | 15 min | 0 |
| 2026-08-29 | Disney California Adventure | Moderate (2) | 2 | 15 min | 0 |
| 2026-08-29 | Disneyland Park | Moderate (2) | 1 | 10 min | 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | Universal Studios Hollywood | Moderate (2) | 1 | 10 min | 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | Knott's Berry Farm | Moderate (2) | 1 | 5 min | 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | Disney California Adventure | Moderate (2) | 1 | 10 min | 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | Disneyland Park | Soft (1) | 1 | 10 min | 0 |
| 2026-08-27 | Universal Studios Hollywood | Moderate (2) | 2 | 15 min | 0 |
| 2026-08-27 | Knott's Berry Farm | Soft (1) | 1 | 5 min | 0 |
| 2026-08-27 | Disney California Adventure | Soft (1) | 1 | 10 min | 0 |
| 2026-08-27 | Disneyland Park | Moderate (2) | 1 | 5 min | 1 |
Observed score is a coarse map from median posted standby (≤12 Soft … >40 Peak). It is a diagnostic, not a claim of gate attendance.